Iran, Red Lines, and Miscalculation in Lebanon
Dina Kraft — June 8, 2026
Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.
Although “Iran War 3” was the phrase going round on Israeli social media Sunday night in a mix of jest, dread, and perhaps hope among those rooting for full-blown war, by Monday afternoon, the media was telling citizens the first exchange of Iranian and Israeli fire since a ceasefire two months ago was already in the rear view mirror.
But the interconnected mess Israel finds itself in – a growing quagmire in Lebanon (escalated when Israel tested Iran and the U.S. by striking Hezbollah targets in a Beirut suburb Sunday), unfinished business with Iran, and pushback from Donald Trump in the White House – is anything but past. If anything, Israel is now in new territory when it comes to how it can face the Iranian proxy army Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As Noga Tarnopolsky, an Israeli reporter and commentator, summed it up on Twitter: “It appears the United States will not allow Israel to cross the red line drawn by Iran and accepted by the United States: No Israeli bombings in Beirut. Netanyahu's legacy will now include an unprecedented rapprochement between Washington and Tehran.”
Just a week ago, Trump got on the phone with Netanyahu and cursed him out, calling him crazy (but adding an expletive) for continuing the attacks in Lebanon, which were jeopardizing his work on a final deal to end the war Israel launched together with the United States against Iran.
In that call, he forbade Netanyahu from giving the order to the IDF to strike Dahiya, the Beirut suburb that serves as Hezbollah’s stronghold. But Netanyahu was pressured not just by Trump not to strike, but also by his own government and opposition figures to be more aggressive in the name of defending the northern border communities under attack by Hezbollah – and perhaps out of a desire to reopen the conflict with Iran. He ended up defying Trump.
Netanyahu, sidelined by Trump, is in a bind politically and militarily. This makes him an easy target for the opposition, smelling blood in the water ahead of upcoming elections, and the enraged residents of the north who have been suffering the brunt of Hezbollah missile and drone attacks that have paralyzed life along the border since the war with Iran began in early March. The player that continues to come out ahead in this game of wills appears to be Iran.
Netanyahu, effectively MIA for almost a day after Iran launched missiles toward northern Israel – sending millions of Israelis into bomb shelters – released a recorded video statement Monday saying he would stop attacks on Iran “for now” but that Israel would respond to any attacks against it. He also gave more details on the nature of the targets Israeli warplanes hit in Iran overnight, as military and economic targets. That counterattack had prompted another Iranian ballistic missile attempt Monday morning, on central Israel.
In a recent Guardian interview with Trump, the U.S. president said that Israel would have to go along with whatever deal the United States negotiates with Iran. “I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”
It is certainly not a good look for Netanyahu to be seen as essentially deferring to Trump’s will when it comes to security decisions. It’s another reminder that Israel’s hand has been weakened by reportedly pushing Trump into attacking Iran in the first place with visions of a swift and dramatic victory.
Meanwhile, the most painful related price tag for the Iran war experienced by Israel has been the deaths of its soldiers in Lebanon. In the past month, since a declared ceasefire with Lebanon, 17 Israeli soldiers have been killed fighting in southern Lebanon, many of them in drone attacks, which leaves them, as one mother of a soldier put it, “sitting ducks” with “nothing to do except lie down and pray.”
The security situation of northern residents has only gone backwards since Operation Roaring Lion, the name of the unprecedented joint operation with the United States to attack Iran with the goal of regime change, removing its nuclear and ballistic missile threat. None of these goals have been achieved, although Netanyahu argues Iran’s overall capabilities have been diminished. A bitter by-product has been Israeli troops again deploying in Lebanon, pressing past the Litani River, which prompts flashbacks to Israel of the 1980s and 1990s before the country withdrew from a so-called security zone in southern Lebanon along the border with Israel in 2000. That withdrawal was sparked by the work of mothers of soldiers serving in Lebanon who, after being dismissed by generals and other ranking officers and politicians, managed to galvanize a national movement to get the Israeli “boys” out of the “mud of Lebanon.”
Guy Varon, Israel’s Channel 12 reporter who covers Israel’s north, added an unusually outspoken commentary to his report Monday, telling viewers something they do not usually hear in the typically jingoist Israeli media – an appeal to de-escalate the fighting in Lebanon.
He began by acknowledging what the army has been able to achieve: “It’s true IDF soldiers are winning in southern Lebanon, and it’s true that when they encounter Hezbollah fighters they are killing them on the spot and they have found new tunnels near the Beaufort fort that we did not know about, but they are not the largest or most significant ones.”
But then he pivoted, to conclude, “But we need to start a new discussion in the Israeli media and public, which is not currently being talked about enough, and that is if there is good reason to continuing this kind of military activity inside south Lebanon. The best of our sons are being killed by drones, so another house or structure is destroyed in southern Lebanon. Is that what will bring security to the people who live in the north?”
Dina Kraft is a journalist, podcaster and the co-author of the New York Times bestseller, My Friend Anne Frank, together with Hannah Pick-Goslar. She is a creator of the podcast Groundwork, about activists working in Israel and Palestine, and was formerly the opinion editor of Haaretz English.
Photo by IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
