Trump Trumps Bibi (Yossi Alpher - May 19, 2025)

Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer. Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.

Q. How different does the Middle East look following last week’s sweeping visit by US President Trump?

A. Superficially, more of the same. The same appalling and depressing news. This week opened with yet more hostage talks in Doha, an expanding IDF offensive in Gaza, and the death toll there spiraling from famine and destruction. There was a pointless Arab League summit meeting in Baghdad. 

And President Trump, home from the Middle East, reportedly suddenly decided it was possible to resettle one million homeless Gazans in Libya. Which Libya? Does he even know there are two Libyas, locked in enmity?

Q. Yet not superficially, at a more substantial level? Did Trump not introduce a deeper dimension into the regional dynamic from the standpoint of the US, the Arab world, Iran, and Israel?

A. Seen barely a few days later, it looks that way. I have to put aside my total antipathy toward the man--his shallowness, his arrogance, his ignorance, his dislike for democracy, for immigrants, for basic values--and recognize that his ‘style,’ his approach, was effective last week.

Q. Do you mean the massive arms and AI deals with Arab potentates?

A. Leave those aside. We don’t really know how effective and comprehensive they will be. It is questionable just how deeply rooted the monarchies of the Arabian Peninsula really are and how capable they are of providing effective commercial and military partnerships.

But Trump put in place a dynamic of a US-Iran détente and nuclear deal. He welcomed to the fold an Islamist revolutionary regime in Syria, along with its patron, NATO-member Turkey. He opened direct negotiations with Hamas in Gaza. He ended the US war with the Houthis in northern Yemen. 

These are far-reaching departures, all in scarcely a week. Trump seems not to have consulted Israel, a US ally, about any of this…

Q. Stop here. Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza and launching armed incursions into Syria. It is bombing the Houthis. So does all this put Jerusalem at loggerheads with Washington? Where is PM Netanyahu, who supposedly knows how to ‘handle’ Washington?

A. Trump completely outflanked and neutralized Netanyahu last week. He seemingly put the Israeli leader on notice that Washington has more important interests at stake. The US has run out of patience with Israel, its extremist coalition, and its endless multi-front conflict. 

Meanwhile, there are indications that Trump will be arming Saudi Arabia and Turkey with weaponry that could, in the future, endanger Israel. And in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Trump is betting on states that are weak both demographically and democratically. Indeed, the US president offers no value-judgment whatsoever regarding the genuine net worth of America’s emerging military and commercial partners in the Arabian Peninsula.

To promote America’s (and his family’s) business interests, Trump wants a Middle East free of conflict and open to investment. Islamists--Iranian, Syrian, Yemeni, Gazan— do not deter him. In terms of cynicism and hard-knuckle business, this takes your breath away. But so far, it seems to be projecting a stabilizing effect on the region. 

Netanyahu looks like he missed the boat of normalization with the likes of Saudi Arabia. In response, instead of ending the war with Gaza, thereby ceasing Houthi missile attacks and rescuing the hostages, Netanyahu is doubling down on yet another pointless and counterproductive military campaign in Gaza. Direct US negotiations with Hamas, behind his back, make Bibi look silly.

Q. Indeed, the US negotiated directly with Hamas to free Israeli-American IDF soldier Edan Alexander. Netanyahu failed at this task. Now Israelis are asking whether they need to equip their kids with a second passport before they are called up for service by the IDF.

A. This is yet another sad commentary on Netanyahu’s performance as reflected in last week’s events. I cannot help but reminisce that it was not always this way. 

I entered the IDF in 1964. The US Consulate in Tel Aviv immediately revoked my US citizenship, filed my canceled US passport in its “Look Out File,” and for several years treated my visa applications--to see my parents in Washington--as somehow subversive. All that changed after the 1967 Six-Day War victory, American recognition of Israel’s military value to US Middle East interests, and a US Supreme Court Decision that awarded me and many others dual-citizenship status.

Now, Trump’s success as a regional player operating completely independently of the US-Israel alliance begs speculation: notwithstanding the efforts of right-wing pro-Israel lobbyists in Washington, could we once again see new thinking there about Israel? Are we seeing it already?

Q. Bottom line?

A. Last week’s American accomplishments in the Middle East present Israel with the opportunity of ending the war in Gaza, ending Houthi missile attacks, gradually enhancing relations with Syria, accepting a US-monitored armed non-nuclear détente with Iran, and beginning normalization with additional Arab countries. Of course, not all Arab and Iranian Islamists are necessarily going to be even remotely friendly toward Israel. But presumably Trump will help, by hook or by crook. 

Or not. A great deal depends on Netanyahu’s disastrous coalition, particularly messianist partners Smotrich and Ben Gvir, on the Netanyahu family’s dangerous influence and Bibi’s own personal legal and legacy calculations. For all its crassness and money-grubbing, Trump’s Middle East jaunt last week glaringly highlighted how badly off Israel is with Netanyahu. 

Between the two of them, Trump and Netanyahu are isolating Israel in the Middle East and internationally. Worse, US-supplied F-35 aircraft in the hands of the Saudis and Turks, both at heart Islamist regimes, could in a few years seriously disturb the Middle East military balance to Israel’s detriment. Imagine all this, with ever more messianist Israeli governments and a US president totally devoid of gut sentiment for the Zionist enterprise…

Meanwhile, note that Trump’s Middle East trip completely ignored Egypt, the region’s lynchpin and a key military ally of Israel. That is a risky proposition. In parallel, Trump's attempt last week to bring about a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict was a failure.

Beyond the arms and AI deals, Haaretz regional affairs commentator Tzi Barel summed up: 

“Trump’s half-hour meeting with Syrian President Ahmed a-Shar’a, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin-Salman and (by Zoom) Turkish President Erdogan describes the new axis emerging under the US president. Saudi Arabia is the leader, Turkey the strategic partner, Iran is invited to join, while Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and the Israeli-Palestinian dispute in general, are sidelined.”

And back on that Gaza sideline, we now witness no fewer than four parallel yet contradictory dynamics: a renewed IDF offensive against Hamas; a renewed major aid effort; in Doha– hostage and even end-of-war negotiations; and in Jerusalem--Haredi and messianist coalition pressures that neutralize everything.

No wonder Trump is looking elsewhere in the Middle East…