An Analysis of Trump’s 20 Points
Yossi Alpher — October 6, 2025
Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.
Q. The new Israel-Hamas agreement is indeed a strategic turning point. But in what direction?
A. Let’s begin with the nuts and bolts, understand what we’re dealing with in the days ahead, and leave President Trump’s ‘great days in civilization’ for later.
Q. But Trump’s twenty points are intended to create a “New Gaza”...
A. Not so fast. Points three through eight have a fair chance of being carried out, in full or at least in part. This means that the negotiations launched in Egypt on Monday this week stand a good chance of catalyzing a partial Israeli withdrawal, a ceasefire, a hostage release by Hamas and a prisoner release by Israel, and a major humanitarian aid effort.
Note that there is nothing new here: no New Gaza. Israel, Hamas and a variety of international actors have carried out these activities on a smaller scale at various points over the past two years. Israel has already ‘withdrawn’ once within the bounds of the Gaza Strip, and can readily do so again. Hence points three through eight look feasible and welcome, albeit not earthshaking.
Q. And points one, two, and nine through 20?
A. These are also desirable and welcome, but are not yet being discussed by the parties. In many ways they are copied from previous Israeli-Palestinian peace plans. Deradicalization and redevelopment (points one and two) are the motherhood and apple pie of those plans. So are (points nine through 20) temporary transitional governance, economic development, demilitarization, regional guarantees, an International Stabilization Force, even a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination” and a proper Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.
None of this can happen right away. None of it may happen if, because of some act of terror or errant bomb, the parties go back to fighting.
Looking for a spoiler who will thwart “New Gaza?” Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas’s junior terrorist partner in this war, is not even mentioned in the 20 Point Plan. Another spoiler? Hamas has not hidden its dislike of those points that call for its disarmament, the International Stabilization Force, demilitarization of Gaza, etc. Yet a third spoiler? Netanyahu’s Kahanist coalition partners and some of his own Likudniks could bolt over implementation of anything beyond Point 8. West Bank-based settler supporters of that Kahanist faction could perpetrate a provocative atrocity.
Then too, beyond a stipulation that hostages will be released within three days, there is no timetable for the 20 points. Given both Netanyahu-government and Hamas hedging and hesitancy, that means that a lot depends on President Trump and his team maintaining the pressure and the momentum.
Q. With all due respect to Trump for this achievement, he is not known for his long-term attention span. What else stands out about the broader regional and international backdrop to this agreement?
A. The list of strategic insights and impacts is as long as Trump’s 20 points.
Q. Start at the regional and international level...
A. On the face of it, Netanyahu has finally agreed to end the war and even acknowledge (point 19) a Palestinian state as the “aspiration of the Palestinian people.” This is an achievement for Hamas – indeed, for all Palestinians – and an about-face for Netanyahu that he already denies publicly in Israel. On the other hand, Hamas is beaten militarily, is pledged to partially disarm, and ostensibly has agreed to forfeit power in the Strip – the only place it has ever ruled.
Israel may have ‘won’ militarily (many months ago) but it has lost morally, internationally, and economically. Most critically, it has lost much of its US support base. Many Israelis might not mind seeing their prime minister bullied by President Trump with commands the likes of “apologize” and “cease bombing immediately.” But the absence in Jerusalem of a leader capable of constructive and humanitarian initiative (not, God forbid, attacking Hamas in Doha) means Israel is in trouble.
Houthi missile and drone attacks from Yemen against Israel should now cease: a Gaza ceasefire has always been the Houthi condition. Yet this, along with Israel’s impressive regional military achievements against Iran, Hezbollah, even Syria, are at least temporarily overshadowed by Israel’s Gaza debacle and its international ramifications.
Qatar, a Muslim Brotherhood-supporting country that harbors terrorists – the Taliban, Hamas – on behalf of the international community, is a big winner for helping birth this agreement. The royal family in Doha, surrounded by stronger, less-than-friendly Arab neighbors, once again survives and prospers, now with extraordinary US security guarantees. The Qatari royals should frame that humiliating photo of Bibi apologizing, the phone on Trump’s lap, the Trump entourage looking on. Turkey too, another Muslim Brotherhood-supporting country, is a winner for its overt support.
At a broader level, the Trump administration has just pulled off the kind of deal it loves: a deal with wealthy, influential and undemocratic Arabs and other Muslims. Hang the details – meaning, ignore Hamas’s equivocations and qualifications – and simply declare success. Is this what they award Nobel Peace Prizes for? As Yediot Aharonot commentator Nahum Barnea notes, “Sometimes you need a charlatan to shatter barriers, break conventions.”
Q. Is former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair the right man to oversee the Gaza reconstruction and reform process?
A. Recall that it was Blair who partnered with US President George W. Bush in 2003 in invading Iraq under false premises and in tragically mismanaging the subsequent occupation. Now he is supposed to manage the dismantling of yet another occupation and the creation of a new and better regime in another Arab entity...
Q. And at the Israeli domestic level?
A. It looks like as long as we are carrying out only points three through eight, Netanyahu’s Kahanist coalition partners will cling to power, even as their revived campaign for ‘transfer’ of Palestinians out of Gaza, indirectly adopted at one point by Trump (the “Gaza Riviera”), is killed and buried by Trump himself. A ceasefire will also take the sting out of the refusal of Netanyahu’s Haredi partners to commit to military service.
Accordingly Netanyahu, however humiliated by Trump, Qatar, and realities, might just be able to avoid coalition defections that catalyze early elections. He is already busy recasting events by taking credit for a ceasefire that was in fact forced upon him by a totally unpredictable US president.
Q. Bottom line?
A. It is hard at this juncture to envision a “New Gaza.” Yet, however cautiously, we wish President Trump success with his 20-point plan.
As for Netanyahu, his fortunes currently look low. But never count him out.
Finally, Tuesday of this week marks two years to the October 7 Hamas attack that launched a war that has not ended. Trump’s 20 points will hopefully usher in a measure of solace and healing. But Israel cannot recover from October 7 while still ruled by a Netanyahu coalition that brought disaster upon the country and refuses to investigate its own failings on, before, and since that fateful day.
