IDF Strikes Freeze the Status Quo—and That May Be the Point
Noam Shelef — February 2, 2026
Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.
We’re entering the fourth month since the start of the “ceasefire” that “ended” the Gaza War. I use scare quotes on purpose. If you’ve been following the news closely, you know that the fighting continues – albeit at a different scale. I spoke with a friend last week who recently returned to his home on the Israeli side of the Gaza border. He shared that the sounds of artillery, or other weaponry, feel like a constant.
So it was not a complete surprise when the level of fighting escalated on Saturday. Israeli warplanes struck multiple locations in Gaza. By the time the dust settled, dozens of Palestinians were dead. Some were militants. Certainly not all of them.
The Israeli military said the airstrikes were a response to the appearance of Hamas militants near the Israeli-controlled part of Rafah the day before. That certainly seems like a violation by Hamas of the ceasefire. Surely, Israel could not allow such a violation to go unanswered? And wouldn’t Israel’s response need to be grand enough to register its displeasure? Otherwise, wouldn’t Hamas become further emboldened?
This is the logic of deterrence. It is intuitive – and in the Israeli-Palestinian context it is a trap.
An Israeli military escalation right now – one that draws a response by Hamas, or one that dissuades foreign countries from dispatching their soldiers as part of the planned International Stabilization Force – undermines the likelihood that meaningful progress will be made under the ceasefire plan.
Instead of a demilitarized Hamas, a reconstructed Gaza, and a further withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza, the result of a military escalation could very well be to freeze the status quo.
And that might even be the point: Many in Israel, especially including those close to the current government, want Israel to continue to control the 52% of Gaza that the IDF currently holds. Security tacticians see that portion of Gaza as a buffer between Hamas and Israeli civilians. For messianic settlers, Israeli control of the territory is the goal. This would not be the first time that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to create a military crisis in order to scuttle a ceasefire.
But the deeper problem isn’t tactical – it’s strategic. Military force can disrupt attacks. It cannot create a political alternative that robs militants of their appeal. That means that without a political alternative, a return to violence becomes inevitable.
That should have been a core lesson from October 7. The disastrous Hamas attack followed years of Israeli policy decisions to utilize military force while eschewing diplomacy. We saw it in 2009 when Netanyahu’s ascension meant the end of the Annapolis process. In the years since, Israel increasingly relied on military force to sustain the status quo in Gaza. We had major Israeli military operations in 2012, 2014, and 2021. At the end of every one of these, Hamas was left in charge, and any Palestinian moderate who spoke of a two-state solution looked like a fool.
Israeli policies during this time also included efforts to bolster Hamas and to weaken its political rivals in the Palestinian Authority. This might seem like a counterproductive Israeli strategy, but it allowed right-wing governments to rebuff international pressure for them to negotiate with the Palestinian Authority. That’s what current Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich meant when he infamously said: “The PA is a burden. Hamas is an asset.”
Looking at the decision by Israel’s leaders this weekend to escalate makes me worry that, whatever lessons they learned from the attack of October 7, they have not learned that diplomatic efforts are a necessary part of any security strategy. Instead, their approach is one that will lead us all back to the trap that Israeli policy choices created before October 7: Moderate Palestinians who want to live in peace alongside Israel will keep losing influence; Palestinian extremists will keep consolidating power; and it will be just a matter of time until yet another terrible war breaks out.
This is why the current moment matters so much. The ceasefire is not just about stopping the shooting. It is about creating space – space for diplomacy, for humanitarian relief, and for a political transition in Gaza. Plans for an International Stabilization Force and a newly appointed technocratic governing body, while imperfect and fragile, represented the best hope to chart a path away from endless war.
We cannot let the wrong lessons from the colossal failure of October 7 send us back to the failed logic of October 6. We need to ensure that a credible political horizon becomes a core element of any security strategy.
Noam Shelef (he/him) joined New Jewish Narrative in 2025 as the Vice President of Communications. The issues that NJN champions have always been close to his heart, and he began his career in 1997 as an intern for Americans for Peace Now. In the years since, Noam has advocated in support of progressive causes in Israel, fighting for LGBTQ rights, and to end practices harmful to girls in Africa.
Photo by Jaber Jehad Badwan - Jaber Jehad Badwan, CC BY-SA 4.0
