Netanyahu’s pardon appeal & Israel’s coming elections
Yossi Alpher — December 1, 2025
Views and positions expressed here are those of the writer, and do not necessarily represent NJN's views and policy positions.
Q. Already? Knesset elections are not mandated until November 2026, a year from now.
A. Yes, but they are almost certain to be held months earlier. And already Israeli politics, and in many ways strategic decision-making, are interacting with the anticipation of elections. So thinking now about elections also offers insights into current strategic calculations in Israel.
Q. Particularly regarding Prime Minister Netanyahu’s official request on Sunday, with President Trump’s endorsement, for a pardon from President Isaac Herzog…
A. The language of the request appears to reflect an assumption on Netanyahu’s part that the pardon, if awarded, will not prevent him from remaining active in politics. This would be an extraordinary development, but in Israel’s current reality it is possible.
(If this is not the case--if Netanyahu is pardoned but as a condition mandated by law acknowledges responsibility for violations of the law and abandons politics--the following analysis will have to be reconsidered.)
Q. Back to our elections preview. Is Israel’s political divide clearly delineated, or is there a swing vote--a sector of the population open to persuasion and to switching its vote, depending upon developments?
A. Most observers concur that there are six or seven potential mandates (out of 120) that are truly open to persuasion. So few, because Israeli politics have become firmly anchored in the country’s right-religious majority.
On the other hand, it is early to assess whether and how Netanyahu’s pardon request will affect a future vote. Note that the very request apparently reflects the assessment of Netanyahu’s lawyers that he is heading for a conviction and a prison sentence in his corruption trial. Much of the Israeli public is not nearly as judgmental toward crooked politicians as are the courts.
Still, there is a political divide, mostly among right-wingers. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition is essentially right-religious, comprising the Likud, National Religious, Kahanists and, tentatively, all of the ultra-Orthodox (Haredim), who have left their coalition portfolios but do not vote against the government. Most of the parliamentary opposition, too, is center-right, led by Naftali Bennet, Yair Lapid (both scoring double digits in the polls) and to a lesser extent (single digits) Gadi Eizenkot, Avigdor Liberman, and Benny Gantz.
That leaves just the Arab parties and the left-wing Democrats (Labor and Meretz) under Yair Golan. They constitute the only real ideological opposition, particularly with regard to religion and state and the Palestinian issue. It is among the center-right opposition and some hesitant Likud supporters that we find those floating mandates which could tilt the outcome of elections.
Here it is important to note that the center-right opposition is in disarray. Lapid, who polls well below Bennet, is nevertheless the official opposition leader because he is a member of Knesset while Bennet is not. Accordingly, Lapid is hard put to speak on behalf of the real opposition. Gantz, Liberman, and Eizenkot are candidates to join Bennet or Lapid, or one another, or to run independently.
In contrast Netanyahu, a proven master of Israeli politics, is best positioned to affect the timing of elections between spring and fall of 2026 or even, according to a few observers, to try to introduce ‘reforms’ in the system that could improve his electoral chances at the expense (surprise, surprise!) of Israeli democratic norms. If he is awarded a pardon yet remains in politics, it seems likely Netanyahu will seek both early elections and anti-democratic ‘reforms’ (e.g., banning an Arab party, distorting the vote count) to capitalize on his new status.
Q. Still, the polls currently favor the opposition over the coalition to form the next government…
A. According to the polls, the Zionist opposition parties could emerge with a plurality, but not a majority. To achieve a Knesset majority and form a government they will have to either coopt mandates from the Likud or from the Haredim, or rely on votes from the Arab parties.
The latter option has always been politically sensitive. Netanyahu threatens to make it even more so by trying to brand one of the Arab parties, Raam led by Mansour Abbas, as ‘Muslim Brotherhood,’ and ban it. Needless to say, Raam and Abbas are nothing of the sort, and have already collaborated with Zionist coalitions. But here again, as with the pardon issue, Netanyahu is quietly collaborating with Trump, who recently took steps to ban the Muslim Brotherhood in the United States.
Q. What strategic developments could tilt the outcome?
A. The outbreak of a major new intifada in the West Bank or a major new war with Iran and/or Lebanese Hezbollah. Missiles hitting Tel Aviv again and massive emergency reserve call-ups could push some despairing right-wing voters against Netanyahu.
In contrast, a breakthrough toward normalization with Saudi Arabia could move some from the anti-Netanyahu right back into the Likud fold. The Saudis are firm about insisting on movement toward two states as a condition. But perhaps Trump can, as a favor to Bibi, pull a rabbit out of a hat and make Saudi normalization work before Israel’s elections.
Q. And can you point to pressing strategic issues that are not likely to affect the outcome?
A. The conflict in Gaza, for one. Over the course of the past two years, Netanyahu and his supporters in politics and the media have succeeded not only in evading creation of a national commission of inquiry that could focus blame on the prime minister regarding the war and its origins. They have also waged a concerted campaign to blame, exclusively, the security establishment--the IDF and the Shin Bet. The farther we are distanced from that war, the less likely voters are to cite it as their principal reason for voting one way or another.
Nor is low-level warfare along any of Israel’s borders liable to affect the vote. The public is simply accustomed to this. As it is accustomed to Haredi draft evasion: this may be a major issue of principle for the anti-Netanyahu secular right, but it is not likely to swing Netanyahu voters or those positioned to their Kahanist/messianist right.
Q. And when do you foresee elections?
A. By June 2026. July and August are vacation months. September is full of Jewish holidays. And October features too many sad and unpredictable war commemorations.
Q. Bottom line?
A. Uniquely in Israeli political history, the next elections will reflect the direct influence of an American president--Trump’s pardon request for Netanyahu--and the pardon request itself. Whatever the outcome, and whether or not Netanyahu remains in politics, Israel will continue to be ruled by a right-wing coalition that rejects a two-state solution and either sponsors or maintains neutrality regarding right-religious anti-democratic ‘reforms.’
This is the negative direction in which Israel is heading, with or without Netanyahu. Remember, the Haredim and the National Religious, now firmly entrenched in Netanyahu’s ‘base,’ are by far the fastest growing sectors among the Israeli population.
Yossi Alpher is an independent security analyst. He is the former director of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, a former senior official with the Mossad, and a former IDF intelligence officer.
